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Travel chain: rainstorm weather affects traffic volumeSlotmatefreeslotcasinoThe May 1st traffic volume is expected to return to the steps of air passenger transport: 1) flight volume: April 26, the seven-day moving average domestic flight volume returned to 105% in the same period in 2019, and the seven-day moving average passenger volume returned to 107% in the same period in 2019; international flight volume returned to 82% in the same period in 2019, and international passenger traffic returned to 83% in the same period in 2019. 2) seating rate & fare: domestic seating rate is 82Slotmatefreeslotcasino.7%, the seven-day moving average compared to the same period in 2019-2.2pct, month-on-week-3.1pct; the seven-day moving average international occupancy rate is 82.0%, compared with the same period in 2019-0.9pct, compared with the same period in 2019-0.9pct, + 2.3pct; domestic oil ticket price is 820 yuan, seven-day mobile compared to the same period in 2019-4.4%, month-on-week + 6.1% 3) the volume and price of core routes: Beijing-Shanghai / Shanghai-Shenzhen / Shanghai-Guangzhou / Beijing-Shenzhen / Beijing-Guangzhou / Beijing-Shenzhen / Beijing-Guangzhou, ① passenger volume, restored to the same period in 2019, 117%, 82%, 82%, 106%, 93%; ② fares, year-on-year change-30%, 21%, 17%, 43, 31%. With the approach of May Day, the strong demand for domestic tourism and the popularity of outbound tourism, the Aviation Department welcomes the configuration window. Considering that the supply growth rate of the aviation industry will go down again in 2024, the travel data in April is expected to hit bottom and pick up, and the public business data may continue to improve. Auspicious Airlines, Spring and Autumn Airlines and Huaxia Airlines are suggested to pay attention to the target of upward flexibility in valuation. Seaborne: oil freight rates stabilized, bulk carriers led the decline, consolidation rose sharply and oil prices stabilized: Clarkson's average VLCC-TCE rose 1.0% to $35k per day this week. The Atlantic market remains robust and is gradually spreading to the Middle East. Near the weekend, the freight rate of the Middle East market has rebounded and is expected to stabilize with the gradual reduction of the previous tonnage list. Consolidation rose sharply: the SCFI composite index rose 9.7 per cent to 1941 points this week. Replenishment in the United States and stock in Europe support demand; attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea have led to tight capacity, slow container return and tight supply. Pre-festival freight rate upward, pay attention to the support of post-holiday demand to spot freight rate. Bulk carriers led the decline: BDI fell 10.3 per cent to 1721 points this week. The freight rate of Cape ships led the decline this week, with an increase in South Atlantic tonnage orders, leading to overcapacity. From the investment point of view, the limited supply of oil transportation and the potential demand call options determine the upside of the cycle and the inevitability of the boom, under the background of low supply growth and low demand expectations, although the trade rhythm leads to price fluctuations in the short term, but the price center continues to confirm the cyclical direction and potential. In addition, it continues to emphasize that 2024 is a super election year, and geopolitical fluctuations give oil transport uplink options. With the recent positive and intense conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as the geographical conflict or good oil transportation directly around shipping, it is recommended to pay attention to Cosco Haineng, Merchants Steamship and China Merchants Southern Oil. Logistics: the price of air freight continues to strengthen, and the price of coal in Mongolia has rebounded. 1) the volume of express delivery: from April 15 to April 21 (2024W16), the cumulative collection volume of postal express delivery is about 3.23 billion, an increase of 22.6% over the same period last year. 2) Road freight index: as of April 25, the freight traffic index increased by 3% compared with the same period last year, and the freight traffic volume has improved this week. 3) Air cargo prices: as of April 22, 2024, the Hong Kong / Pudong air cargo price index was 2.4% higher than last week. 4) Ganqi Maodu Mongolia coal transport volume-short-disk freight rate: from April 15 to April 21, the average daily traffic volume at the port is 1026 vehicles per day, an increase of 110 vehicles per day over the previous month; the average short-disk price is 51 yuan / ton, an increase of 6 yuan / ton. Cross-border e-commerce continues to be prosperous, optimistic about China Eastern Airlines Logistics, China Foreign Transportation (DHL) and so on. At the same time, the upstream link pays attention to the cross-border transport opportunities brought by the overseas layout of Chinese-funded mining enterprises, and is optimistic about Jiayu International. In 2024, Zhongtong emphasizes high-quality development, superimposed regulatory policies restrict the intensity of price competition, and the price second-order inflection points can be expected, indicating investment opportunities at the bottom of the express plate, giving priority to industry leaders with high success rates, Zhongtong and Yuantong, and paying attention to second-line express leading investment opportunities. Risk tips 1, macroeconomic fluctuations; 2, oil prices and labor costs have risen sharply; 3, European sanctions on Russian oil products have been lifted. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.